Tuesday, February 19, 2013
A Fortnight of 2013 Topps: Day 13
The odds of guessing a streak of 57 is so absolutely absurd. Just for fun, I ran a little simulation. Consider that there are 179 days of baseball this year. So, for the sake of this experiment, we'll say you get 179 chances to pick hits. Assume that you have enough codes, since we're not certain exactly how the chase works.
Each of those 179 days represents a guess that is either a 0 (no hit) or a 1 (hit). To win the contest, you would need 57 1's in a row.
Assuming a league batting average of .250 (meaning 1 in 4 are a "hit), the best streak I got in 100,000 repititions was 12.
That doesn't tell the whole story, though. You likely will be picking players with high averages. Let's assume that you pick from players that average .300. The best streak here was 17.
Let's say you are a good guesser, so you're going to effectively make the average .500. So basically, it's a coinflip. The best streak here was 23. We're not even halfway to 57.
It wasn't until I bumped that percentage up to 0.75 that I got a streak of 57.
So, guessing at a 75% clip, I got one streak of 57 in 100,000 tries.
That's also considering that you can pick whoever you want, whereas it actually sounds like you can only choose from the players you unlock. That makes the odds way way tougher.
Of course, this isn't perfect, and it's far from a true statistical analysis of the problem. However, you can rest assured that the odds are long and you probably aren't going to win $1,000,000.
Yes, those are two different scans because I'm a dork.
Unless there are some real cards to unlock, I just don't understand why people would be buying these codes up. I honestly think you'd be better of buying lottery tickets.
Even for a decent guesser/analyst, I believe the chances of getting 57 is somewhere in the 1 in a few quadrillion range. I will be floored if anyone wins it.
Really, I told you all this just to make it seem that much more amazing when I bring home the cash. My 8 codes and I are going to rock this.