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Monday, June 25, 2012

Tennis, anyone?


It's Wimbledon time, or the best time of year for tennis.  Wimbledon is the king of kings when it comes to tennis tournaments.  I'm completely in the tennis spirit.

So, after selling some items on eBay and browsing the DACardWorld clearance pages, I bought, in addition to my Gint-A-Cuffs box and other items, two cases of these 2007 Ace Authentic Straight Sets retail boxes.

That's right, I went crazy and bought 2 cases.

Each case has 20 blasters, each with 7 packs (4 cards per pack, 1 Material card per box).  I also qualified for some DACardWorld free items, and opted for 6 more boxes.  All together, I will have 46 boxes.

Each box has 4x7=28 cards plus one Material card.  Of the 28 cards, one will be a bronze parallel and one will be an insert.  That leaves 26 base cards.  For 46 boxes, I will end up with 1,196 base cards.  The base set consists of just 50 cards.  


Here's where we get down and nerdy.  I wrote a code that randomly filled 1,196 spots with a number from 1 to 50.  That would simulate a completely random collation of cards.  I then searched the random array to see how many sets of 1-50 I came up with.  I then repeated the process 10,000 times. 



The above histogram shows that the number of sets that occurred most often was 14.  The average value was 13.7.  Assuming a normal distribution (yes, I know this isn't quite a normal distribution), and considering 3 standard deviations, I can assume that there is a 99.7% chance that the number of complete sets I will receive is between 8 and 19.


Consider yourself lucky if you have stuck with this post to this point.  I'm going to give you a chance to win a complete set, and maybe something else.

All you have to do is guess the answers to these 5 questions:

How many complete sets will I get?
What card will I get the most of (checklist here)?
How many of that card will I get?
Who will win the Men's Wimbledon tournament this year (draw here)?
Who will win the Women's Wimbledon tournament this year (draw here)?


Who ever gets the most correct answers wins.  Of course, if you don't win, we can always work a deal for a set, as I will likely have several to trade.  You have until Wednesday night at 5:01 pm to enter. 

17 comments:

  1. Nice graph! I don't know the distribution...but I know it's not Poisson!

    13 complete sets.
    Caroline Wozniacki
    26
    Djokovic
    Sharapova (yes, I know...not very creative)

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    ReplyDelete
  3. 14 complete sets.
    James Blake
    24
    Feddy
    Sharapova

    ReplyDelete
  4. Why not, just for fun :)

    10 sets
    Sharapova
    16
    Djokovic
    Sharapova

    ReplyDelete
  5. 14 complete sets
    Vera Zvonareva
    27
    Novak Djokovic
    Victoria Azarenka

    ReplyDelete
  6. 15 complete sets
    Boris Pashanski
    23
    Roger Federer
    Samantha Stosur

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  7. How many complete sets will I get? 12
    What card will I get the most of (checklist here)? 32 - Richard Gasquet
    How many of that card will I get? 17
    Who will win the Men's Wimbledon tournament this year (draw here)? Djokovic
    Who will win the Women's Wimbledon tournament this year (draw here)? Sharapova

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  8. 16 complete sets
    David Nalbandian
    19
    Andy Murray
    Sharapova

    ReplyDelete
  9. 14 sets
    Marion Bartoli
    22
    Djokovic
    Sharapova

    ReplyDelete
  10. 13 complete sets
    James Blake
    28
    Djokovic
    Sharapova

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sets: 11 Complete Sets
    Card with the most appearances 23 - Nicole Vaidisova (cutie)
    Number of times: 27
    Winner men: Djokovic
    Winner women: Victoria Azarenka

    ReplyDelete
  12. Why'd you have to sully the good game of tennis with that painful number stuff?

    9 complete sets
    Richard Gasquet
    14 of Mr. Gasquet
    Djokovic
    Radwanska

    Love tennis cards! There needs to be more!

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  13. 18 complete sets
    Dinara Safina
    22
    Nadal
    Wozniacki

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  14. 15 complete sets
    Andy Roddick
    36
    Djokovic
    Sharapova

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  15. 13 complete sets
    Rafael Nadal
    37 Nadals
    Federer
    Sharapova

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  16. How many complete sets will I get?
    17, naturally

    What card will I get the most of?
    7 - Anna Kournikova, again, naturally

    How many of that card will I get?
    I'm going to say you are low, and go with 30.

    Who will win the Men's Wimbledon tournament this year?
    Robin Haase

    Who will win the Women's Wimbledon tournament this year?
    Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

    ReplyDelete
  17. Well I ran my own simulation, with some pressure to be a little better than random, and came up with this:

    Complete Sets: 16
    Most of card: #37 Kristian Pless
    How many: 32
    Men's Winner: Rafael Nadal
    Women's Winner: Maria Sharapova

    ReplyDelete